Brent Crude oil costs are set to drop into the $60s per barrel vary quickly, based on one of many largest impartial oil merchants, Trafigura.
Brent Crude, the worldwide benchmark, was buying and selling at $71.63 a barrel, up by 0.65% on the day, early on Monday, as each benchmarks rebounded following a significant selloff final week. Oil costs dropped to their lowest stage to date this yr and settled on Friday on the lowest ranges since June 2023.
Ben Luckock, International Head of Oil at Trafigura, expects Brent to drop into the $60s deal with, though he warned that merchants shouldn’t put all their eggs within the basket of shorts.
The value of Brent is “in all probability going to enter the $60s a while comparatively quickly,” Luckock mentioned on the Asia Pacific Petroleum Convention (APPEC) convention in Singapore on Monday.
However, he warned that “It’s harmful as a result of there’s so many occasions on the market that may wreck your day,” in remarks at a panel on the convention carried by Bloomberg.
“I wouldn’t put all of your chips on the desk being quick,” Luckock mentioned.
The temper within the oil market has been more and more bearish in latest weeks amid considerations about oil demand in China, which isn’t residing as much as earlier expectations of main one other yr of progress in world consumption.
One other main oil dealer, Gunvor, additionally expects Brent at $70. Gunvor’s co-founder and chairman Torbjorn Tornqvist informed the APPEC convention that Brent’s honest worth is now $70 a barrel as provide outpaces demand.
The issue with oversupply will not be the OPEC+ coverage however the truth that the group doesn’t have management over the bounce in non-OPEC+ provide, Tornqvist mentioned.
The bearish forecasts from Gunvor and Trafigura got here simply as Morgan Stanley reduce once more its forecast of Brent oil value to common $75 a barrel within the final quarter of the yr. The outlook downgrade was the second in simply two weeks after on the finish of August the Wall Road financial institution reduce its Brent value forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel, down from $85 anticipated earlier.